In East and West Africa, the belligerence of Al-Shabaab and Jamaat al-Nusrat al-Islam -wol- Muslims under the umbrella of Al-Qaeda has intensified at a time when Al-Qaeda has yet to appoint a new leader after the killing of its second leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Based on the intelligence information from the Zahadan area of the eastern border of Iran, a security meeting was held in Sistan and Balochistan, the joint border region of Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan, on August 13.
Afghan and Pakistani scholars participated in the meeting. The meeting was held in relation to the successor of the former leader of Al-Qaeda, but the outcome of the meeting has not been known yet. The Al-Qaeda group became more renowned at the international level after the attacks on American commercial buildings and the Ministry of Defense after September 11, 2001, and the activities of this group became demised and faded out, when the founder and leader of this group, Osama Bin Laden was killed by the American Special Forces in Pakistan in 2011.
Well along, when Afghanistan fell into the hands of the Taliban for the second time, this group rejuvenated its activities. The AQ deceased leader Dr. Zawahiri had a plan to relocate the (Afghan) Taliban from South Asia to the Middle East for Jihad. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of the al-Qaeda group, was killed on July 31, 2022, in the capital of Afghanistan, as the result of MQ9-Reaper aerial strike of CIA. Moreover, after July 31, Al-Qaeda has remained in an uncertain position, but the Jihadi organizations under the patronages of this group have been strengthened and accelerated their activities in East and West Africa. If there is a delay or any obstacle in the selection of a new leader for Al-Qaeda group in such sensitive circumstances, so the Al-Shabaab organization is ready to declare its government in East Africa as a strong Jihadi organization separate from Al-Qaeda under the leadership of its leader Ahmad Omar.
In order to achieve this goal, Ahmed Omar has made a secret meeting with the newly appointed minister of religious affairs of the Somali government, Mukhtar Robo, on the joint border between Somalia and Ethiopia, and Mukhtar Robo also cooperates with al-Shabaab in rising up to the government in Somalia, and participates in the new government in East Africa. Sheikh Mukhtar Robo is one of the founders and partners of al-Shabaab group in Somalia and he was the former deputy of this group. Mukhtar Robo separated from Al-Shabaab due to internal differences with the former leader of Al-Shabaab, Ahmed Abdi Godan, who was killed in 2013, and surrendered to the Somali government in 2017.
In 2018, before he was arrested by the Federal Government of Somalia, he ran for the presidency of the South West Province of Somalia. However, after being under house arrest by the Somali government for three years, Robo was appointed the Minister of Religious Affairs of Somalia on August 2, 2022, two days after the killing of Al-Qaeda’s second leader Ayman Al- Zawaheri.
Now, Ahmad Omar, the leader of Al-Qaeda in Somalia is trying to overthrow the federal government of Somalia with the help of Robo. If there is a delay or obstacle in the selection of the leader of the Al-Qaeda group, Ahmad Omar will declare Al-Shabaab as a separate and independent jihadist organization from the Al-Qaeda group, and the center of the new government of Al-Shabaab will be in East Africa. He will extend his group to the Middle East so that this organization gains fame in the Middle East and appears to substitute Al-Qaeda.
In any case, after the death of al-Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri, from August 7th to 14th, I render a report on the destructive goals of jihadist organizations under the umbrella of al-Qaeda in African countries as a tip of iceberg. On August 7, three Somali soldiers were injured and two were killed after the attack by al-Shabaab fighters on the capital of Somalia, Mogadishu. On the 8th of August, the Somali al-Shabaab rebels attacked Hoden headquarters in the capital Mogadishu, including the killing of Colonel Hassan Farahi, And Jelli, the deputy commander of the state militia in Wajar district, was also killed in a battle with al-Shabaab fighters on the morning of August 8. There was a simultaneous battle by al-Shabaab group on eight military bases in Mandera city in the northeast of Kenya, and a number of these bases were selected for the Kenyan elections. Al-Shabaab fighters also attacked the center of Ugandan forces, the capital of Mogadishu, and the cities of Janali. Another security unit of the Al-Shabaab movement killed a guard of the ballot boxes in the ongoing Kenyan elections near the capital. There were also attacks in Canton District, Garfarar District, Wajir County, and North East Kenya and 20 Kenyan soldiers were killed.
In addition, on August 7, 2022, a bloody attack was carried out by Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam Walmuslim in Mali between Kosala and Kouri on Mali soldiers, And besides this attack, the war in South Sikaso area started with the destruction of an armored military vehicle and ended with the killing of five Malian soldiers. As the result of that war five Kalashnikovs, 5 pistols and 12 armored tanks were captured and 432 people were captured alive.
On August 9, six security guards of the parliament building were killed by Al-Shabaab fighters in the Somali parliament building in the capital of Mogadishu. On the 9th of August, a colonel of Somalia’s intelligence agency, named Muhammad Abbas Jars, was killed by al-Shabaab fighters at Banadir intersection. On August 11th, 11 mortar shells were fired at a base of Ethiopian soldiers by al-Shabaab fighters in the city of Qanshadiri in the southwest of Somalia, and as a result, 9 Ethiopian soldiers were killed. Four Somali soldiers have been killed as a result of attacks on two bases of the Somali army by the al-Shabaab group in the cities of Badawa and Densoor.
On August 11, two Somali soldiers were killed in Shabelle province. August 12th: The former deputy security affairs of Afjawi city, Hussain Jibril, along with his two bodyguards were killed by al-Shabaab fighters in the southwest of the same city. Furthermore, Geno Muhammad Ibrahim, a member of the Somali government’s parliamentary election committee was killed by the al-Shabaab movement in the Harawa area of Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia.
Al-Shabaab group was ordered by the Sharia court to execute six American, Kenyan and Somali spies who were responsible for the air operations under the orders of the American forces. August 14, a military officer named Abdo was killed along with four soldiers because of an attack on the base of the Somali army by al-Shabaab group in Yarkad area of Loq city in the west of Somalia.
Al-Shabaab is presumably a franchise of Al-Qaeda, which has doubled down the jihadi terrorist undertakings under the auspices of Al-Qaeda in the entire African continent supposed to declare its independence from Al-Qaeda, while performing as an imminent jihadi terrorist group worldwide.
Al-Shabaab hoist in the international geopolitical arena will be a major blow to the counterterrorism and counter intelligence agencies at the global level.
Da’esh, affiliates remain ‘global and evolving’ threat
Ajmal Sohail is Co-founder and Co-president of Counter Narco-terrorism Alliance Germany and he is National Security and counter terrorism analyst. He is active member of Christian Democratic Union (CDU)as well.
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Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Taliban and the Modus Operandi of Jihadi Terrorism in Africa
In a joint briefing to the Security Council on Tuesday, UN counterterrorism officials confirmed that the threat posed by Da’esh terrorist fighters and their affiliates remains “global and evolving”.
“Da’esh and its affiliates continue to exploit conflict dynamics, governance fragilities and inequality to incite, plan and organize terrorist attacks,” said UN counter-terrorism chief Vladimir Voronkov, presenting the Secretary-General’s fifteenth report.
They also exploit pandemic restrictions, misuse digital spaces to recruit sympathizers and have “significantly” increased the use of unmanned aerial systems, as reported in northern Iraq.
In charting the of the expansion of Da’esh expansion across Iraq, Syria and through areas of Africa that until recently had been largely spared from attacks, Mr. Voronkov attributed their success in part to a decentralized structure focused around a “general directorate of provinces” and associated “offices”.
These operate in both Iraq and Syria, as well as outside the core conflict zone – notably in Afghanistan, Somalia and the Lake Chad Basin.
Better understanding and monitoring, including through global and regional cooperation, are vital to counter the threat.
Providing an overview, Mr. Voronkov said that the border between Iraq and Syria remains highly vulnerable, with an estimated 10,000 fighters operating in the area.
In April, the group launched a global campaign to avenge senior leaders killed in counter-terrorism operations.
While the number of attacks claimed or attributed to the local Da’esh affiliate has decreased in Afghanistan, since the Taliban assumed control last year, its presence has expanded into the north-east and east of the country.
In Europe, Da’esh has called on sympathizers to carry out attacks by exploiting the easing of pandemic restrictions and the conflict in Ukraine.
In Africa, meanwhile, the senior UN official described the expansion of Da’esh across the Central, Southern and Western reaches of the continent.
From Uganda, one affiliate widened its operations into the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while another – after being knocked out by military action in 2021 – intensified small-scale attacks in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province.
The expansion has even affected littoral countries in the Gulf of Guinea, which had previously been spared from violence.
In terms of financing, Mr. Voronkov said Da’esh leaders manage between $25 to $50 million in assets, significantly less than estimates three years ago.
However, the diversity of both licit and illicit sources underscores the importance of sustained efforts to cut terrorism funding.
While he welcomed recent repatriations by Iraq, Tajikistan and France, he expressed concern that the limited progress achieved so far in repatriating foreign terrorist fighters and their family members is “far overshadowed by the number of individuals still facing a precarious and deteriorating situation”.
Tens of thousands of individuals – including more than 27,000 children – from Iraq and some 60 other countries remain subject to enormous security challenges and humanitarian hardship.
The counter-terrorism chief reiterated the Secretary-General’s call for Member States to further their efforts in facilitating the safe, voluntary and dignified repatriation of all individuals who remain stuck in camps and other facilities.
“Terrorism does not exist in a vacuum,” said Weixiong Chen, Acting Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate, which was established in 2001 following the 11 September terrorist attacks in the United States.
Describing gains, he said that the Executive Directorate, which is a special political mission, was able to resume its on-site assessment visits after two years of virtual and hybrid formats brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Among other efforts, his team issued a report synthesizing its extensive consultations with African civil society groups on trends related to ISIL in Africa, as well as a study on the links between counter-terrorism frameworks and international humanitarian law.
In closing, he called for a comprehensive, coordinated “All of UN” approach tailored by age and gender, and human rights compliant as the only way to push back against a global terrorist threat like Da’esh.
A 10-Year-old boy Irfan Ullah Jan would walk down the streets of Sadda, Kurram district heading to his school with one simple fantasy: one day he would become something. He aspired to return something back to his loved ones. Sadly, Jan’s fantasy didn’t remain simple as it seemed to be after a deadly bomb blast. But today, he is giving back a lot more to the once war-torn Tribal districts.
An IED blast ripping through the Awami Bazar, Sadda in Kurram District killed three people on spot, leaving several injured back in July 2011. Among them was Jan, whose legs had to be amputated to rescue his life. It took almost 10 years for him to formulate an organization in the once war-torn Tribal districts of Pakistan called as “FATA Disable Welfare Organization”. Till date, he has enrolled thousands of poor disabled students in private schools.
Furthermore, he rendered social services for disables by forming an organization “Kurram Union of Special Persons”. This union facilitated disabled children to get their early education without any cost. The union after years of hard work has been matured into FDWO – FATA Disable Welfare Organization. The now chairman of FDWO, Irfan Ullah Jan has successfully assisted hundreds of war victims in getting free access to education. FDWO has rehabilitated more than one thousand disabled persons by providing them with artificial limbs. Philanthropist Mr Jan has reintegrated the disabled persons by arranging community activities like Sports galas. Speaking to us on the support he has been receiving, Irfan Ullah Jan says “FDWO receives charity money from public at large. Pakistan Army has been pivotal in facilitating me to inaugurate rehabilitation center for Special Persons along with an imperative support in educating disabled children of the area. I received “President’s Pride of Performance Award” this year for the services FDWO has been providing in the region.”
He expresses that “the tribal region has seen worst militancy in the past which includes deaths, economic losses and instability. Apart from these challenges, rehabilitating war victims was the biggest challenge for the government of Pakistan and this was the aim behind the foundation of his organization to rehabilitate and bring normalcy in the region.”
The long wave of militancy which effected people economically and socially especially in the tribal districts has now transformed into a wave of rehabilitation. Youth like Irfan Ullah Jan are returning a lot more to the once war-torn Tribal districts.
President Joe Biden was not wrong when he declared that “justice has been served” with the killing of Al Qaeda leader Ayman Zawahiri in a US drone strike.
The problem is that’s only half of the truth; the other half is that Mr. Zawahiri was more a has-been than a power to be reckoned with on the jihadist totem pole. In death, he may have scored his most significant achievement since becoming head of Al Qaeda as the symbol of the failure of decades of war in Afghanistan.
Mr. Zawahiri’s presence in Kabul in a house owned by Sirajuddin Haqqani, Afghanistan’s de facto deputy head of state, will be touted as evidence that Afghanistan has reverted to being a base for terrorist groups. Mr. Haqqani’s son and son-in-law are believed to have also died in the drone strike.
In addition, the killing will likely become a partisan issue in domestic US politics, with Republicans pointing to Mr. Biden’s bungled withdrawal a year ago of US troops from Afghanistan.
In anticipation of the criticism, Mr. Biden said the killing demonstrated the United States’ post-withdrawal ability to protect Americans without “thousands of boots on the ground.”
Even so, the withdrawal resulted from a war that the United States and its allies could not win and a fundamentally flawed US-Taliban agreement negotiated by the administration of former President Donald J. Trump that helped the Taliban regain power.
Since succeeding Osama bin Laden after the United States killed him in 2011, Mr. Zawahiri, the man who helped shape Al Qaeda from day one, could not garner the stature of the group’s former leader. Nor was he able to impose his will on Al Qaeda franchises in Yemen, Somalia, and elsewhere in Africa.
Researcher Nelly Lahoud argues in a recently published book based on computer files confiscated in the US raid that killed Mr. Bin Laden that Al Qaeda had lost much of its operational capability in the immediate years after the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan.
The Islamic State, the foremost jihadist organization locked into a bitter fight with the Taliban, increasingly overshadowed Al Qaeda, showcasing Mr. Zawahiri’s inability to fill Mr. Bin Laden’s shoes.
In fact, the Islamic State today poses a greater threat to the United States than Al Qaeda. Equally importantly, the Islamic State also constitutes a more significant threat to Central Asian states like Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, as well as Russia and China.
If Mr. Zawahiri’s presence in Kabul raises questions about the Taliban’s willingness and determination to prevent militant groups from operating from its territory, repeated Islamic State attacks on domestic Afghan targets, and the firing of rockets into Tajikistan and Uzbekistan call into question the group’s ability to do so.
To be sure, granting Al Qaeda leaders shelter does not by definition amount to Taliban acquiescence of the group launching attacks from Afghan soil.
The questions are particularly acute given that Mr. Zawahiri was killed days after the Taliban engaged with representatives of 30 countries at a conference in the Uzbek capital of Tashkent in a bid to unfreeze some US$7 billion in Afghan foreign currency reserves.
Days later, Tashkent hosted foreign ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Council (SCO), who had Afghanistan high on their agenda. The SCO groups India, Russia, China, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
The Taliban regime has yet to be officially recognized by any country. Countries across geopolitical divides have insisted that the Taliban first demonstrate their willingness and ability to control all of Afghanistan and curtail militant groups.
The international community also required the Taliban to form an inclusive government and ensure women’s rights. The Taliban have yet to deliver on any of its promises.
Reporting to the United Nations Security Council in January, UN Special Representative for Afghanistan Deborah Lyons noted that “the existence of numerous terrorist groups in Afghanistan remains a broad international and especially regional concern. The desire of the de facto authorities to take on this threat across the board remains to be convincingly demonstrated.”
Ms. Lyons’ remarks have seemingly gone unheeded in Kabul. In response to the Islamic State attacks on Tajikistan, home to Russia’s largest foreign military base, the Taliban are building a watchtower on the two countries’ border with the help of a Tajik group bent on changing the regime in Dushanbe.
Adding insult to injury, graffiti near the tower celebrates Muhammad Sharipov, aka M. Arsalon or Mahdi Arsalon, a Tajik national wanted by authorities for the past eight years on terrorism charges.
During talks last month, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon cautioned his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, against a possible recognition by Moscow of the Taliban regime. Mr. Putin insisted that he would consider Tajik concerns about ethnic minority rights in Afghanistan.
While ethnic minority rights may be a Tajik concern, the opposite may be true for China. China fears that the militant Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP), also known as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), hardened by the war in Syria, may want to use Afghanistan as a launching pad for attacks in retaliation for China’s brutal crackdown on the Uyghur Turkic Muslim minority in the northwestern province of Xinjiang.
A United Nations Security Council report said last month that the group had built strongholds in Badakhshan near the Chinese border in northeast Afghanistan, where it had “expanded its area of operations and covertly purchased weapons, with the aim of improving its capabilities for terrorist activities.”
The Taliban suggested that they had moved the estimated 1,000 Uyghur fighters away from the Chinese border to other parts of Afghanistan last October. China has long pressed the Taliban to curtail the group’s activity.
Creating distance between Uyghur militants and the Chinese border may not be good enough. The Islamic State sought to make that clear when it employed an Uyghur as a suicide bomber in an attack last October on a Shiite Muslim mosque in the Afghan city of Kunduz.
The message was: Uyghur militants have alternatives. The Taliban may not be their best bet.
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